Predictions for 2026: what’s next for robotics

Guest post by Brightpick CEO Jan Zizka

Robotics in 2025 was full of excitement, with record VC investment, rapid progress in embodied AI, and new hardware innovations. Yet the industrial robot market continued to stagnate, with installations showing no meaningful growth since 2021 and China continuing to dominate with >50% of global deployments.

From humanoids and Robots-as-a-Service to nearshoring and lights-out operations, here are my top predictions for what is coming next in 2026.

1. Manufacturing becomes the main driver of automation

The shift toward rebuilding domestic manufacturing in the United States is accelerating, driven by persistent supply chain fragility, geopolitical uncertainty, and tariffs. To remain competitive with lower-cost economies in Asia, manufacturers are increasingly turning to automation to boost output per worker.

While sectors such as retail or warehousing are delaying heavy capital investment in automation due to economic uncertainty and weak consumer sentiment, manufacturers designing new plants have no such flexibility. High costs and persistent labor shortages, with more than one million open manufacturing jobs in the U.S., make automation the only reliable way to achieve the productivity needed for domestic production.

2. Robotics supply chains start to split

Geopolitics will shape robotics as much as technology in 2026. With roughly 90 percent of key components still sourced from China, Western manufacturers are under growing pressure to localize production. A gradual divide between US-aligned and China-aligned robotics ecosystems is emerging, which will raise short-term costs but improve long-term resilience.

More companies now demand dual sourcing to protect against shocks, even if the initial expense is higher. Rising U.S. and European funding for domestic manufacturing will support this transition, yet rebuilding the robotics supply chain will be a decade-long effort rather than a quick shift.

3. Robots-as-a-Service gains traction

RaaS is gaining momentum as companies rethink how they finance and scale automation. Instead of committing to large upfront capital purchases, more companies are opting for monthly fees that bundle hardware, software, and maintenance. This lowers financial risk, improves payback speed, and makes automation accessible to buyers who are cautious about heavy capex during uncertain economic periods.

Adoption is accelerating fastest among smaller manufacturers, 3PLs, and firms with constrained capital budgets. As robotics innovation speeds up and pilot deployments increase, RaaS is becoming a practical way to deploy unproven solutions early and validate their performance without exposing the buyer to financial risk.

4. Lights-out warehouses are finally here (sort of)

The dream of fully automated, human-free warehouses is finally within reach. True 24/7 lights-out operations are still a few steps away, but early signs show the shift is underway. Some operators are already running lights-out night shifts where robots handle all core workflows without on-site human supervision.

A clear example is The Feed, a U.S. ecommerce retailer that uses Brightpick robots to run a fully autonomous night shift. Robots pick and buffer orders overnight so they are ready for immediate packing when staff arrive, which increases throughput and shortens delivery times.

This hybrid model, with robots running lights-out for part of the day and supervised during peak hours, is set to expand rapidly in 2026 as operators lay the groundwork for fully automated sites in the future.

5. Humanoids stay in the spotlight, but real deployments remain limited

Humanoid robots will continue dominating headlines in 2026, yet activity will remain focused on demonstrations, pilot tests, and data collection rather than production-grade deployments. Companies are still identifying practical roles for them, and high costs combined with limited capabilities and reliability make ROI difficult to achieve.

With valuations running ahead of technical progress, at least one high-profile humanoid startup is likely to face major setbacks or shut down. In parallel, emerging ISO and ASTM safety standards will add needed structure and predictability to future deployments.

Testing humanoids now is healthy for the sector, but they remain several years away from addressing real operational needs at scale.

6. Micro-fulfillment centers make a comeback

After a period of stagnation post-Covid, e-grocery is booming again with 30-50% year-over-year growth in the United States. As volumes rise, companies such as Amazon are revisiting small, local fulfillment sites to cut last-mile costs and accelerate delivery. At the same time, newer robotics systems with lower costs and higher throughput are finally making compact micro-fulfillment centers economically viable.

E-grocery MFCs were ahead of their time. Now both the technology and the business model have aligned with customer expectations, creating conditions for a new wave of profitable, automated micro-fulfillment centers.

In summary

Taken together, these trends point to a more pragmatic era for robotics in which economics, resilience, and real-world performance drive adoption. The winners in 2026 and beyond will be the operators who start deploying automation now, learn from it, and scale what actually works.

About Brightpick

Brightpick is a leader in AI-powered robotic solutions for warehouses. The company’s multi-purpose AI robots enable warehouses of any size to fully automate order picking, buffering, consolidation, dispatch, and stock replenishment. The award-winning Brightpick solution takes just weeks to deploy and allows companies to keep their warehouse labor to a minimum. With offices in the US and Europe, Brightpick has more than 250 employees and hundreds of AI robots deployed with customers.